The More Things Change…

The energy transition is described as not just a once-in-a-generational change; but a huge structural reform which is reshaping our entire energy system and economy. While it is, there have been seismic shifts in our industry many times in the past. I’ve recently been reading about the history of the Australian electricity industry, particularly the Queensland and Victorian histories,¹ which has some lessons for us in understanding where the industry is today, and the transition we will need to make.

I was born in the late 1980s, arguably the golden era for centralised electricity generation. The late 1970s and 1980s saw the state electricity commissions at the height of their power with newly constructed large centralised coal-fired generation plant providing power via the recently completed (intra-state) transmission backbones. All aspects of the existing electricity industry (generation, transmission and distribution, retailing) were mature and electricity was inarguably an essential component of a modern society.

By the time I started my career in 2011 (working predominantly in coal-fired power plants) the state electricity commissions been privatised and the NEM formed. It was also clear to astute observers that the coal-fired era was over. That mightn’t have been dogma within the industry, but momentum for the transition was clearly building.

Fast forward more than a decade and discussion around the transition has well and truly broken into the mainstream, large scale renewables are very much the norm and rooftop solar covers more than a third of all residential roofs in the country. Even the most stalwart coal proponents have (begrudgingly) accepted that no new coal-fired stations will be built in this country and we’re in the process of somewhat messily phasing out the existing plants.

If that pace of change feels rapid, well within one lifetime, consider the changes during my parent’s generation. Rural electrification schemes were still being actively pursued during the 1960s and into the 1970s — many regional towns, especially in large states like Queensland, were not connected to the central transmission system and it was not uncommon for rural properties to be entirely without electricity.

Centralised generating plant, predominantly coal, were in some states still an evolving concept. Although Victoria centralised the generation system around the coal mines in the Latrobe Valley early in the twentieth century, in states like Queensland there were still evolving arguments about the new centralised design of the Gladstone Power Station versus the array of existing smaller stations in the south east like Swanbank, Bulimba and Tennyson (and Howard and Roma and Townsville).²

During this same period the state electricity commissions still actively marketed the benefits of electricity for households by operating showrooms displaying and selling electrical appliances and white goods! Several of the state electricity commissions even published cookbooks advising housewives the benefits of cooking with electricity and the differences from cooking on fire.

Rewinding to when my grandparents were born, most of the state electricity commissions didn’t exist, transmission systems were piecemeal at best and generation was not centralised. In Brisbane the privately owned City Electric Light Co. built Bulimba A on the south side of the river and the Brisbane City Council built the New Farm Powerhouse on the north side. The generation capacity from either one of these stations was sufficient to supply the entire southeast’s needs at this time, but the inefficiencies of unfettered competition lead to this situation.

Going back to the previous century, electricity supply wasn’t actually established until the last decade of the 19th century — Tamworth became the first Australian town with electric street lighting in 1888.³

Within four generations we’ve gone from a nascent electricity supply industry to an incredibly complex and interconnected system connecting most of the east coast to large centralised generation systems. Electricity has gone from being a novelty or curiosity, to something which underpins practically all aspects of modern civilisation.

So… which part of the history of electricity supply would suggest that it’s a static industry not subject to massive change each generation? Why is the energy transition such an (apparently) gut wrenching proposal to so many, and not just another chapter in the efforts to continuously improve society?

However, amongst this continual change there are some core themes which remain the same.

1. Power has always been too expensive

Complaining about power prices is a common thread throughout the history of the electricity supply industry. There are very few points in history where people haven’t complained about the price of electricity or where driving down electricity costs hasn’t been front of mind for the authorities in charge.

This is just as true for residential households and businesses as it is for large industry — the construction of the aluminium smelters in the 1970s and 80s was contingent on the price of electricity and involved plenty of horse-trading between the aluminium businesses and state governments. Modern data centre development is agitating just as strongly for low power costs in order to continue flooding social media with AI slop.

2. Big infrastructure projects have always been contentious

I mean, this one is obvious right? Did you think that we built large coal-fired power stations, hydro-electric schemes and transmission lines without community opposition? Are social licence and environmental concerns purely 21st century concepts? ** chuckles in Franklin Dam **

Large infrastructure projects, by their very nature, are contentious and attract opposition from both affected communities, interested parties and opportunists. In more modern times we associate the opposition largely with affected communities (and the long comet tail of cookers and professional protesters), but opposition to previous projects has also been as much about capturing favourable outcomes.⁴

To wit — Queensland’s development of the large centralised coal-fired power plants in the late 1970s, which ultimately yielded Tarong, Stanwell and Callide B, saw both political interference from the Premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen, who overrode the economically preferred location of Millmerran in favour Tarong which was in his electorate, and vocal opposition from the Swanbank collieries who could see their demise in favour of other coal mines closer to the new station sites.

3. Reliability problems, or perceived reliability problems

Culture war columnists dedicate many, many inches to the apparent problems of reliability — our system is apparently teetering on the brink and a gust of wind (or rather, the lack of a gust) could send it tumbling into the abyss.

Apart from the fact that we haven’t breached the official standard of system reliability in 15 years, or that most of these commentators don’t actually understand what reliability means in the context of a power system; the entire premise of degrading reliability somewhat rests on the premise that we’re “ruining” a previous very reliable system.

The electricity supply industry was deeply challenged during the second world war, for obvious reasons, and then worsened immediately after the war as supply chains still hadn’t recovered (and no longer benefitted from war time spending). The late 1940s and early 1950s in Queensland were periods of austerity, with common asks of the community to use less electricity and endure frequent blackouts.⁵

The 1970s and 1980s saw multiple industries affected by industrial disputes and strikes; the electricity industry was no different. The 1985 SEQEB dispute is one of most striking examples of the era (and Joh’s heavy-handed strike-breaking tactics irreversibly damaged the ETU and the broader union movement in Queensland), and industrial unrest in Victoria throughout the 1990s culminated in the CFMEU wildcat strike in late 2000.

Changes to industrial relations laws across the economy mean that the days of industrial disputes are largely a thing of the past, and the CMFEU wildcat strike was the last (?) example of system reliability being threatened by industrial action.

The increased interconnection of the NEM and modern communications technologies and control systems are broadly lead to very high levels of reliability in the 21st century; and while it’s true that the forecasts of reliability concerns have increased during this messy phase of the transition — see the latest couple of AEMO ESOO reports — forecasts are just that.

But the electricity supply industry is one of the most complex systems we’ve ever built as humans. And ensuring and maintaining reliability has been an enduring problem since the very first generators sputtered to life; it is far from a new challenge for the system operator.

here are many other common threads throughout the energy industry which would give credence to the old aphorism about being doomed to repeat history and all that. It should be shocking to absolutely no one that there a great number of lessons in the pages of history books, many of which are surprisingly recent.

And yet in reading about the history of the electricity supply industry it has also struck me just how rapid the pace of change has been, and how recent many of the features of the modern grid really are.

What will the grid look like by the time I retire?

Notes:
1. live an absolutely wild life.
2. In fact one of the first decisions of the newly minted SECV was to put the kibosh on the Kiewa hydro-electric scheme in favour of the original Yallourn A station and the expansion of the Latrobe Valley coalfields.
3. Demonstrations had been completed in Sydney previously, but nothing permanent.
4. We’ve written previously about the challenges of building large energy projects.
5. Society’s reliance on electricity during this period was admittedly much lower than today, but the historical record seems to suggest a much hardier attitude from the public when asked to conserve electricity during this period. Reporting of blackouts now would seek to equate them to nothing short of the abject failure of the Australian nation.